Week 17 NFL Picks

Gotta make it quick this week...as I'm getting ready to head to the Holiday Bowl tailgate here in San Diego...GO WILDCATS!!

Week 17 NFL Picks

HOME TEAMS IN CAPS
Last Week: 11-5
Overall: 165-75 (68.8%)

Indianapolis Colts 23, BUFFALO BILLS 13

Jacksonville Jaguars 24, CLEVELAND BROWNS 17

Chicago Bears 27, DETROIT LIONS 14

San Francisco 49ers 27, ST. LOUIS RAMS 10

Pittsburgh Steelers 24, MIAMI DOLPHINS 23

MINNESOTA VIKINGS 30, New York Giants 20

Atlanta Falcons 27, TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 20

CAROLINA PANTHERS 23, New Orleans Saints 13 --REVISED from original prediction

HOUSTON TEXANS 27, New England Patriots 24

Philadelphia Eagles 24, DALLAS COWBOYS 21

DENVER BRONCOS 31, Kansas City Chiefs 10

Baltimore Ravens 27, OAKLAND RAIDERS 13

Green Bay Packers 28, ARIZONA CARDINALS 24

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 23, Washington Redskins 14

Tennessee Titans 26, SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 18

NEW YORK JETS 22, Cincinnati Bengals 9


Have a Happy New Year everyone...back next Tuesday!

Week 16 NFL Picks

Second-to-last post of the year...meaning I won't get a chance to further rip Oregon St. for an extremely poor and unprepared performance last night against BYU in the Vegas Bowl.

On that note, here are this week's NFL picks:

Week 16 NFL Picks

HOME TEAMS IN CAPS
Last Week: 11-5
Overall: 154-70 (68.8%)

San Diego Chargers 27, TENNESSEE TITANS 24
-Tennessee's slim playoff hopes die at the hands of the best team in the NFL (since Week 7 that is)...and San Diego clinches the #2 seed in the AFC and a first round bye with this victory.

ATLANTA FALCONS 23, Buffalo Bills 7
-The Bills are down to their 3rd QB, former Packers practice squad member Brian Brohm...the Falcons' defense should have a field day.

CINCINNATI BENGALS 30, Kansas City Chiefs 13
-Cinci will clinch the AFC North with a rousing home win dedicated to the memory of their former teammate Chris Henry.

CLEVELAND BROWNS 16, Oakland Raiders 13
-And in this week's version of the Toilet Bowl, I'll take the home team...that's about all I can say to justify this one outside of the fact that both teams have played surprisingly better of late.

GREEN BAY PACKERS 31, Seattle Seahawks 16
-The Packers win their 2009 home finale and put themselves in a nearly invincible position for an NFC Wild Card spot. Despite his tendency to hold the ball too long, Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has become a superstar in this league.

MIAMI DOLPHINS 24, Houston Texans 17
-The Dolphins still have an outside shot at an AFC Wild Card berth...and with the last two games at home, you never know what can happen...

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 27, Jacksonville Jaguars 14
-The Chargers are one team that does not want to play Tom Brady and company in the 2nd round of the playoffs.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 33, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10
-The Saints get back on the winning track after a surprising home slip-up against Dallas last Saturday night.

NEW YORK GIANTS 24, Carolina Panthers 20
-These teams put on a classic last December when the #1 seed in the NFC was on the line...the stakes aren't nearly as high this time.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS 23, Baltimore Ravens 20
-The Steelers will play with more fire on defense than in previous weeks in order to keep their slim playoff hopes alive.

ARIZONA CARDINALS 35, St. Louis Rams 13
-The Cards don't have much to play for here...but Kurt Warner and company should still put on a show against his old team. A loss by the Rams here will likely clinch the 1st pick in the 2010 NFL Draft for St. Louis.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 28, Detroit Lions 10
-The 49ers are playing for pride...the Lions...well...for a lower draft pick?

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 20, New York Jets 14
-How much will the Colts starters play with an undefeated season on the line? I would really be surprised if New York wins here...but it should be a low-scoring game regardless.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 26, Denver Broncos 16
-Philly is playing for the NFC East title and potentially the #2 seed in the playoffs while Denver is aiming for an AFC Wild Card berth. The Broncos will clinch their spot next week with a win over hapless Kansas City.

Dallas Cowboys 27, WASHINGTON REDSKINS 20
-Washington always is up for this game no matter their record...but the disparity in talent between both teams will be clearly evident in this matchup.

Minnesota Vikings 28, CHICAGO BEARS 20
-Minnesota desperately needs a win here...or it will be time to declare that the wheels have fallen off the Vikings Super Bowl bus.


Have a great holiday weekend everyone! Back next Wednesday with Week 17 picks!

Monday Musings - the Cardinals, Saints, Fresno State, Milton Bradley for Carlos Silva, and more!

Only two blogs this week...today and Wednesday...and a short blog next week as I'll be in San Diego for the Holiday Bowl...

-What is it with the Cardinals playing to the level of their opponents? The Lions are 1-13 and without their starting QB and RB...yet they were very much alive in the 4th quarter yesterday.

-Something still seems off with Kurt Warner...he really looks tentative in the pocket and it seems as though he doesn't trust his offensive line that much.

-I truly believe the Cards will have their hands full in the 1st round of the playoffs - they will either be hosting the Packers, Cowboys, or Giants...and all three teams are more than capable of winning in Arizona.

-Well so much for my prediction that the Saints would finish the regular season undefeated...the looked befuddled to say the least on Saturday night as the Cowboys seemingly manhandled them all over the field.

-Compound New Orleans' poor performance with another Minnesota dud and that Saints-Vikings NFC Championship Game isn't looking quite as probable now.

-I can't believe my Packers choked that badly in Pittsburgh yesterday...mind you they were beaten on the final play by a perfect throw and an amazing catch...but the momentum Green Bay had built in the last month now is out the window. A win over Seattle seems like a near certainty, but then again...

-Denver losing to Oakland at home? Come on Josh McDaniels...I know you're a rookie head coach, but you can't let that happen...

-I'm still sticking with San Diego and New Orleans in the Super Bowl.

-What a pathetic showing by a superior Fresno State team in the New Mexico Bowl this Saturday. They were totally outplayed by a Wyoming team that didn't belong on the same field with them.

-Watching teams like Wyoming and Middle Tennessee win is the reason the College Bowl system is great as is...for the lesser teams to have a chance at a postseason game. I would still make changes at the top though.

-I'm thrilled my Cubbies unloaded the cancer that is Milton Bradley to the Mariners, but for Carlos Silva, arguably the worst pitcher in the Major Leagues?

-Silva can eat innings...but he gets crushed because he rarely strikes anyone out...for his career, batters are hitting well over .300 off him - which is brutally bad.

-If Silva starts more than 5 games for Chicago this year, I think all of my hair might fall out...I won't be able to stand it.

-Bradley could be a great move for the suddenly contending Mariners or he could be an absolute nightmare...call me crazy, but I actually believe he'll be a success.

FINAL THOUGHT - There's been rampant speculation that the NFL wants to expand its regular season by 1 or 2 weeks. Considering at least 20-30% (on the low side) of opening day starters are sidelined due to injury at this point, don't you agree that 16 games is more than enough? Adding more meaningful games will actually cause the competition to decrease by the end of the regular season.

EC's Bowl Picks Confidence Plays

I'm listing winners from most confident (34) to least confident (1) along with a comment...if you need help picking the bowls...check out below:

34 - USC over Boston College
BC is not good on the road...and USC has vengence on its mind from an underachieving regular season.
33 - Fresno St. over Wyoming
Wyoming is borderline the worst team of the 68 in a bowl game.
32 - Nevada over SMU
SMU would be in the bottom 5 of the 68 bowl teams...they blew a big lead and lost to a Washington St. team who finished the season 1-11.
31 - Texas Tech over Michigan St.
MSU has 8 key players suspended for this one and Tech is playing not too far from home.
30 - Florida over Cincinnati
You think Tim Tebow wants to lose his final two games as a collegian? No chance.
29 - UCLA over Temple
Even an average Pac-10 team should stomp an above average team from the MAC. Defense rules this game.
28 - Virginia Tech over Tennessee
V-Tech will avenge its Game 1 loss to an SEC team in the Georgia Dome with a rousing victory over Tennessee in the same venue.
27 - South Florida over Northern Illinois
MAC teams have traditionally gotten pounded by the much stronger Big East team in the International Bowl. USF romps.
26 - Ohio over Marshall
What an awful bowl game! If you watch this and don't have gambling interests, you must be a football diehard (like me)!
25 - TCU over Boise St.
I think this game will be closer than the the 7 point line...despite the fact that TCU is clearly the better team.
24 - Missouri over Navy
With a win here, Mizzou kicks off its campaign to be a surprise team in the Big 12 next season under QB Blaine Gabbert.
23 - Georgia over Texas A&M
Don't expect much defense to be played in this one...A&M can score in bunches but has absolutely no defense.
22 - Oregon St. over BYU
This should be a very good game with a similar result to last year's Arizona-BYU Las Vegas Bowl...the Pac-10 team (OSU) should win by a TD or so.
21 - Arkansas over East Carolina
Arkansas might be a very dangerous team if QB Ryan Mallet returns to school next season instead of opting for the NFL Draft.
20 - Mississippi over Oklahoma St.
Without suspended receiver Dez Bryant, I'm not sure OSU has the firepower to keep up with a very good, but underachieving Ole Miss offense.
19 - Houston over Air Force
Points galore in this one...a superior passing team (Houston) against a dominant ground attack (Air Force). This is the third time these teams have played in the last two years, including in the same bowl last December.
18 - Miami over Wisconsin
A great matchup here...but Miami is playing in their home state, has faced better competition this season, and has the better athletes. 'Canes win 26-20.
17 - Arizona over Nebraska
Obviously I'll be at this one on December 30th in San Diego. Look for the 'Cats to use quick timing routes to keep the Nebraska defensive line in check. UofA wins 20-17.
16 - Iowa over Georgia Tech
Iowa lost two of their last three, but with QB Ricky Stanzi back from injury and a dominant defense, don't be surprised if they completely stifle Tech's option running attack.
15 - Central Michigan over Troy
I'm a lot more leery of this pick after CMU Coach Butch Jones just left for Cincinnati and won't coach the bowl game.
14 - LSU over Penn St.
Why is Penn St. favored here? They looked poor against ranked teams (Ohio St. and Iowa) in their own weak conference.
13 - Iowa St. over Minnesota
Minnesota was horrible after losing star wideout Eric Decker, while Iowa St. actually has some impressive wins on its resume (at Nebraska being one).
12 - Auburn over Northwestern
The SEC owns the Big 10...except in the Outback Bowl. NW won their last three to close out the season strong...
11 - Bowling Green over Idaho
This is essentially a home game for Idaho - but a late season slump makes me believe Bowling Green is simply the better team. This game should be a shootout.
10 - Utah over California
Without their best player (Jahvid Best), what is Cal really playing for here? Utah is money in bowl games.
9 - Alabama over Texas
The reason I picked this so low is Texas' mastery in the Rose Bowl (2 big wins this decade including in the last national championship game played here).
8 - Connecticut over South Carolina
Since the death of cornerback Jasper Howard, UConn has played with a different level of emotion.
7 - Ohio St. over Oregon
I really don't know why I'm picking this one...great defenses do usually beat great offenses though.
6 - Central Florida over Rutgers
This is essentially a home game for UCF, whose defense should feed on Rutgers Freshman QB Tom Savage.
5 - Middle Tennessee over Southern Mississippi
Middle Tenn has a nice long winning streak coming into this one...but will they be ready for superior competition in USM?
4 - Florida St. over West Virginia
If it weren't Bobby Bowden's last game after a storied coaching career, FSU would have no chance.
3 - North Carolina over Pittsburgh
Does Pitt have any motivation to play here? They missed a BCS bowl game by a bad extra point snap. This game is essentially a home game for UNC.
2 - Kentucky over Clemson
Does Clemson have any motivation to play here? They were that close to the Orange Bowl!
1 - Stanford over Oklahoma
This one might a reach with Stanford QB Andrew Luck out of the lineup...but Oklahoma's record in bowl games of late is surprisingly poor.

See you back next Monday!

Week 15 NFL Picks

-One more thought that I forgot to mention in yesterday's blog - what the heck are the Phillies doing in trading away star pitcher Cliff Lee and two top prospects for Roy Halladay? Don't get me wrong...Halladay is better than Lee and will be signed to a three year deal upon completion of this trade...but Lee was 4-0 in five starts in the playoffs for Philly. The thing that gets me the most is trading two of their best prospects and getting only one notable prospect in return. My verdict: thumbs down for Philly, thumbs up for Seattle, and thumb in the middle for Toronto as the jury is still out on the prospects they're receiving for Halladay.

Now on to the picks...I'm getting closer to that 70% mark I had hoped to achieve...basically I'll need to win 36 or 37 of the last 48 games in order to reach that mark...here we go:

Week 15 NFL Picks

HOME TEAMS IN CAPS
Last Week: 12-4
Overall: 143-65 (68.8%)


Indianapolis Colts 27, JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 24
-The Colts won't be resting their players just yet...and the Jaguars just don't seem to remember how to win important games. Give me the undefeated team in this one.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 31, Dallas Cowboys 21
-Winning in New Orleans this year has been impossible thus far for opponents...and it will be next to impossible in January. Look for Dallas' December swoon to continue...

New England Patriots 26, BUFFALO BILLS 18
-The Patriots haven't won a true road game all season (the win over Tampa Bay in London doesn't count)...and while the Bills nearly pulled out the win in Foxboro to open the season, look for New England to win more comfortably here.

Arizona Cardinals 34, DETROIT LIONS 14
-Look for Kurt Warner to have a monster game coming off a poor performance on Monday night. The Lions D will have no answer for the (usually) potent Arizona offense.

TENNESSEE TITANS 24, Miami Dolphins 20
-With Titans QB Vince Young's status in doubt, I wouldn't be surprised to see Miami pull off yet another road upset. But Tennessee's Chris Johnson is the best running back in the league this season...and I don't see Miami slowing him down this week.

Cleveland Browns 17, KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 13
-This week's version of the Toilet Bowl...it seems to me like the Chiefs have mailed it in for the season...so I'll take the Browns coming off their inspired win at home vs. the Steelers last week.

Houston Texans 35, ST. LOUIS RAMS 13
-Speaking of another team that has mailed it in this season, the St. Louis Rams. Houston wins this one going away with little trouble.

NEW YORK JETS 19, Atlanta Falcons 10
-I love the way the Jets' defense is playing of late...New York cornerback Darrelle Revis might be the best defensive player in the league...if not, he's very close. Atlanta's nightmare of a late season continues.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 26, San Francisco 49ers 14
-Philly's offense is more potent now than I can remember in recent memory...not to mention dynamic RB Brian Westbrook has been out with side effects from a concussion. Look for a comfortable Eagles win here.

BALTIMORE RAVENS 23, Chicago Bears 16
-I have a sneaky feeling the Bears give the Ravens a decent fight...but won't be able to beat Ray Rice and company in the end.

DENVER BRONCOS 23, Oakland Raiders 9
-Without unsung hero, QB Bruce Gradkowski, the Raiders chances of winning on Sunday appear to be slim.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 30, Cincinnati Bengals 17
-San Diego might be the most dominant team in the league as of late...and it's hard to pick against them even against a playoff-bound Bengals team.

Pittsburgh Steelers 27, GREEN BAY PACKERS 20
-I hate to pick against my team here, but look for the Steelers to play inspired football against the likely playoff bound Packers. Ben Roethlisberger throws for two scores and tops 250 yards passing in the win.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 24, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10
-The Bucs will be better in due time...while Seattle really needs to think about addressing the QB position this offseason...I'm not sure how much Matt Hasselbeck has left.

Minnesota Vikings 24, CAROLINA PANTHERS 20
-The Vikings don't seem nearly as invincible as they did a few weeks ago before that Cardinals loss. Look for the Panthers to nearly pull off the home upset on Sunday night.

New York Giants 20, WASHINGTON REDSKINS 17
-With a win and a Dallas loss (which is probable), the Giants would move into a tie for 6th place in the NFC...and own the tiebreaker by virtue of beating the Cowboys twice. New York seems like a good bet to win this one.

Back Friday with my 2009-10 Bowl Confidence Picks...

Tuesday Thoughts - the Cardinals' problems in San Fran, 19-0?, the state of UofA basketball...and MORE!

A special Tuesday edition this week followed by NFL picks tomorrow and College Bowl Picks on Friday.

-Didn't the Cardinals have an extra day to prepare for the 49ers last night? What a hideous performance on offense...Kurt Warner was brutal...the offensive line was bad...and the running backs / receivers couldn't hold onto the ball.

-With that said, the Cards magic number is 2...a combination of two wins and/or 49ers losses over the next three weeks. The NFC West should be clinched this weekend in fact...Arizona should beat Detroit and San Francisco should lose on the road to Philly.

-Sorry folks...I don't see a Cardinals playoff run again this season. Playing the Packers or Cowboys in the 1st round is a death wish...though it's hard to ever rule out a healthy Kurt Warner in a home game.

-But let's be honest here...can anyone beat the Saints in New Orleans? It seems as though their home field advantage right now is greater than any team I can remember in at least the last decade. Am I wrong? Assuming the Eagles maintain the #3 seed and defeat their first round opponent, the Cardinals would have to travel to New Orleans in round 2.

-The Saints will go 16-0 in the regular season...and I predict the Colts will lose once in the final three weeks. As of now, I'll predict a New Orleans-San Diego Super Bowl...Drew Brees against his old team, the Chargers.

-San Diego might be the most impressive team in the last 8 weeks or so...and has always caused problems for Indianapolis in the playoffs.

-My league MVP vote through 14 weeks: 1. Drew Brees, 2. Peyton Manning, 3. Phillip Rivers, 4. Chris Johnson, 5. Brett Favre - surprised?

-Speaking of MVP votes...or something like that...I don't have a big problem with Mark Ingram winning the Heisman - but Tim Tebow finishing 5th? I'm a Tebow supporter, but he DID NOT deserve to be invited as a top 5 candidate to the ceremonies this season.

-I'm also a bit surprised that Toby Gerhart was that close...the closest runner-up in history, despite not playing on Championship Saturday while the other four candidates did.

-What the heck happened to my once proud UofA basketball program? After getting blown out by a decent San Diego St. team, there doesn't seem to be much hope for my alma mater this season.

-Then again the Pac-10 in basketball looks horrendous based on non-conference results this season...could they only be a 1 or 2 bid league in the NCAA Tournament?

Back tomorrow with NFL picks!

Week 14 NFL Picks + Army/Navy

It's a Wednesday/Friday combo blog...time for the next round of NFL selections:

Week 14 NFL Picks

HOME TEAMS IN CAPS
Last Week: 10-6
Overall: 131-61 (68.2%)

Pittsburgh Steelers 17, CLEVELAND BROWNS 3
-The weather for this one is expected to be nasty...so don't look for much passing here. Pittsburgh wins an ugly game and improves to 7-6. They likely will have to win out in order to make the playoffs after the horrible loss to Oakland last week.

New Orleans Saints 30, ATLANTA FALCONS 14
-If Falcons QB Matt Ryan plays, this one could get interesting...but otherwise look for New Orleans to have an easy time with Atlanta, who has been decimated by injuries of late.

Green Bay Packers 24, CHICAGO BEARS 20
-I wouldn't be surprised if this went the other day, but after how poorly the Bears looked in beating the woeful Rams last Sunday, I just can't pick them here.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 31, Denver Broncos 20
-The Colts have a very good chance at running the table in the regular season and finishing 16-0, yet for some reason I wouldn't be surprised if they lost in the AFC playoffs. Denver never seems to fare well against the Colts.

Buffalo Bills 23, KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 13
-The Chiefs have looked borderline brutal in the last two weeks...while the Bills have played better as of late. Look for Terrell Owens to find the end zone in a comfortable Buffalo win.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS 24, Cincinnati Bengals 16
-Did the Cardinals develop a gameplan last week to slow down the Vikings' pass rush and therefore neutralize their defensive success? Let's see if the Bengals follow suit...

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 34, Carolina Panthers 17
-Tom Brady should go crazy in this one after not being able to win on the road in the last couple weeks. I don't see how Carolina stands much of a chance to win this one.

New York Jets 16, TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 13
-A low-scoring affair, look for Jets RB Thomas Jones to near 150 rushing yards in a close New York win.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 23, Miami Dolphins 20
-Another game I could see going either way, but Jacksonville has been relatively successful at home this season. Maurice Jones-Drew scores twice as the Jags strengthen their playoff hopes.

BALTIMORE RAVENS 31, Detroit Lions 10
-Baltimore RB Ray Rice has a field day against the well below average Lions defense. Don't look for a slip-up here similar to Pittsburgh-Oakland last week.

HOUSTON TEXANS 34, Seattle Seahawks 20
-Look for the Texans to take out some frustration here...the need to win out and get some major help in order to make the playoffs.

TENNESSEE TITANS 31, St. Louis Rams 7
-Titans RB Chris Johnson should near 200 yards rushing and score at least twice in a big blowout of St. Louis.

Washington Redskins 20, OAKLAND RAIDERS 16
-A rematch of Super Bowl XVIII when the underdog Raiders crushed the high-scoring Redskins 38-9. I like the way Washington's offense has played of late and therefore give them the advantage over the sometimes decent, other times awful Oakland defense.

Dallas Cowboys 27, SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 24
-This should be a classic, but let's be honest here, Dallas needs this win more. The Chargers shouldn't lose much ground in the race for the AFC's #2 seed as Denver and Cincinnati should likely lose as well.

Philadelphia Eagles 26, NEW YORK GIANTS 23
-The Giants looked good in the 2nd half against the Cowboys last week, but I really liked how the Eagles' D came one second from a shutout in Atlanta last Sunday. Philly wins as the clock expires on a David Akers field goal.

Arizona Cardinals 26, SAN FRANCISCO 49ers 20
-The Cards seem to always struggle in keeping 49ers RB Frank Gore in check. Look for Gore to near 100 yards rushing and score once, but the Kurt Warner to Larry Fitzgerald / Anquan Boldin combination should be too much for San Fran to shut down in the end.


BONUS COLLEGE PICK - NAVY 24, ARMY 20 - Army hasn't won this game since 2000 and while they won't get it done here, this game should be the closest matchup in recent years. Make sure to watch the postgame ceremonies...one of the best traditions in college football.

See you all next Monday for a wrapup of the weekend!

Monday Musings - the BCS matchups, the Heisman, UofA in the Holiday Bowl, the Cardinals dominant win, and more!

What a great football weekend...Saturday and Sunday...there were so many outstanding games all around...let me dive in:

-Texas: worst clock management I've ever seen in a late game situation...I don't think anyone could believe what they were watching. Hunter Lawrence's clutch field goal bailed out Coach Mack Brown and QB Colt McCoy from a disastrous choke job.

-Alabama: dominant win over Florida. I've seen bigger upsets in championship games...but would be very surprised if they lost to Texas in the BCS National Championship Game.

-Cincinnati/Pittsburgh - Game of the Year. Back and forth...more than enough excitement to go around...it was a shame Pitt had to lose on a bad extra point snap though.

-My top 5 (if I had a vote): 1. Alabama, 2. TCU, 3. Texas, 4. Florida, 5. Cincinnati - I just think TCU would have a better chance to handle Alabama than Texas does, considering how poorly the Longhorns played in their last few games. The reason I rank Cinci so low is they truly were outplayed and should've lost to Pittsburgh on Saturday.

-Initial picks for the BCS matchups...(I reserve the right to change these in three weeks):

• BCS Championship - Alabama 27, Texas 17
• Fiesta - TCU 31, Boise St. 20
• Rose - Oregon 27, Ohio St. 20
• Sugar - Florida 38, Cincinnati 23
• Orange - Iowa 24, Georgia Tech 20

-Back to the playoff bracket I suggested weeks ago (5 automatic BCS Conference Champions, the highest ranked non-BCS conference champion, and two at-large berths)...let's see how it would shake out based on the final BCS standings:

• (1) Alabama-SEC vs. (8) Georgia Tech-ACC
• (4) TCU-at large vs. (5) Florida-at large
• (3) Cincinnati-non BCS vs. (6) Oregon-Pac 10
• (2) Texas-Big 12 vs. (7) Ohio St.-Big 10

In this scenario, Boise St. would be left out by virtue of TCU and Florida finishing higher in the final poll. Maybe my idea of an 8 team playoff wasn't the best suggestion after all...

-My (mock) Heisman Trophy ballot: 1. Toby Gerhart - Stanford, 2. Ndumakong Suh - Nebraska, 3. CJ Spiller - Clemson, 4. Mark Ingram - Alabama, 5. Colt McCoy - Texas

• Gerhart simply dominated all competition this season...1,700+ rushing yards and 26 TDs on a team that was clearly better because of him alone. Suh is a close second...he's the best defensive player we've seen in college football this decade...his 4.5 sack performance against Texas was amazing. Spiller is the most dynamic player in the game...and would be a close 3rd. Ingram was very good, especially against Florida, but he's not the game changer compared to the previous three. McCoy was horrendous on Saturday night, therefore plummeting from 1st to 5th in my rankings.

-I'm so proud of my Arizona Wildcats for beating USC in Los Angeles and earning and invitation to a very good bowl game, the Holiday Bowl in San Diego. What a great win for the program...and I can't wait to see it in person later this month.

-Surprisingly I'm not regretting the near Rose Bowl miss as I should be now...even if we had beaten Oregon, I still believe UofA would've found a way to lose at least one of the final two games at ASU and at USC. Hindsight is 20/20 folks.

-Transitioning to the pros, the Cardinals are a very dangerous team when Kurt Warner is healthy. They dominated a very, VERY good Vikings team who I thought was the best in the NFC before yesterday.

-With a win at San Francisco next Monday night, the Cards will seemingly have clinched the NFC West and will have the inside track at the #3 seed in the NFC. Bad news folks...they won't be able to win at New Orleans or at Minnesota in the playoffs...I just don't see it.

-Can the Saints get any luckier? Not much...

-Can the Steelers get any more down in the dumps? Yes...if they lose to the Browns this Thursday!

Back Wednesday with NFL picks...

College Football Pickoff - Week 14

What a classic that Oregon-Oregon St. game was last night...back and forth...two teams that left it all out on the field...what a fun game to watch! The Bills-Jets game on the other hand...not so much...though I did pick it within one point of the exact score. Enough of my gloating...on to Championship Week college picks:

USC TROJANS 20, Arizona Wildcats 13
-The 'Cats always seem to play these guys tough, but I just don't see a Holiday Bowl bid in store for them this season. Fortunately Arizona will still get to play a ranked opponent in the Poinsettia Bowl (either Utah or BYU) - and the game still is in San Diego. November 13th, 2010 - the Trojans will lose in Tucson to the Wildcats...mark it down early!

WASHINGTON HUSKIES 27, California Golden Bears 24--UPSET SPECIAL
-Let's call this my upset special of the week...remember I'm 2-0 in my last two weeks with these picks. Washington has beaten superior teams USC and Arizona on their home turf this season and gave LSU a good run for their money...look for Huskies QB Jake Locker to have a monster game in what is likely his last collegiate game (before he declares for the NFL Draft).

SEC Championship Game in Atlanta--Florida Gators 24, Alabama Crimson Tide 17
-The game will be close throughout until the Gators score the deciding touchdown with five minutes to go. Tim Tebow will get a chance to play in his 3rd National Championship game. Obviously this is a must-watch for any college football fan...it's the game of the year.

Big XII Championship Game in Dallas - Texas Longhorns 27, Nebraska Cornhuskers 17
-This one will be more of a challenge than the 'Horns expect at the outset...but I have a feeling Nebraska's offense will play surprisingly well. Texas QB Colt McCoy cements his Heisman Trophy candidacy with another 300+ total yardage day.

ACC Championship Game in Tampa - Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 30, Clemson Tigers 23
-We already saw this matchup in Week 2 of the college football season with Clemson roaring back from a big early deficit only to lose on a last second field goal to Tech. Neither team has been to a BCS bowl game in recent memory...so look for this one to be quite entertaining throughout. But I don't see how the Tigers can shut down the triple option of Tech.

Cincinnati Bearcats 31, PITTSBURGH PANTHERS 23
-This is the unofficial/official Big East Championship Game...and as good a team as Pitt has been this season, Cincinnati is far superior. Look for the Bearcats to stake their claim as the contender in waiting if Texas slips up on Saturday night. After that, don't be surprised next week if/when Cincinnati Coach Brian Kelly takes the Notre Dame job.

Conference USA Championship Game in Charlotte - Houston Cougars 34, East Carolina Pirates 24
-Cougars QB Case Keenum might have deserved a Heisman ceremony invitation had the Cougars not lost for the second time this season (to Central Florida) a few weeks ago. Instead look for him to ravage the normally solid Pirates defense to the tune of 350+ yards passing, 4 touchdowns, and a Cougars win.

Have a good weekend everyone!

Week 13 NFL Picks + Oregon/Oregon St. on Thursday night

So it's crunch time for my three fantasy football teams this week...two are in the playoffs...one needs a win this week and I'm in. If I lose, season over. Talk about pressure!

On to the picks...

Week 13 NFL Picks

HOME TEAMS IN CAPS
Last Week: 12-4 Overall: 121-55 (68.8%...my goal is 70% for the season)

New York Jets 20, BUFFALO BILLS 13 (in Toronto)
-The Jets still have an outside chance at making the playoffs, but they likely will have to win out to do it. I'll take the New Yorkers based on the revenge angle from this season's earlier OT loss.

Philadelphia Eagles 26, ATLANTA FALCONS 17
-Atlanta just has too many problems to overcome without starting QB Matt Ryan and star RB Michael Turner.

CHICAGO BEARS 31, St. Louis Rams 14
-Don't be surprised if Jay Cutler and his offensive company have a very solid game for the Bears this Sunday...St. Louis' defense is awful.

CINCINNATI BENGALS 31, Detroit Lions 10
-I'll predict a two touchdown game from Chad Ocho Cinco...and a defensive TD by the Bengals (no, I don't have either of them on any of my fantasy teams).

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 27, Tennessee Titans 23
-I think it's a mandate now that the Colts must be in danger of losing entering the 4th quarter of every game they play in...but somehow Peyton Manning and company have found a way to stay undefeated.

Denver Broncos 20, KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 17
-This is a swing game for the Broncos...if they win here, I would expect them to make the playoffs...if they lose, I would venture to say they're in big trouble.

New England Patriots 27, MIAMI DOLPHINS 24
-The Dolphins loss to the Bills last week pretty much eliminated them from playoff contention with a very difficult schedule remaining...I'd be surprised if they were 100% focused for this one. On the other hand, you have to think Tom Brady will be primed for a big effort off his poor performance at New Orleans on Monday night.

New Orleans Saints 30, WASHINGTON REDSKINS 14
-Speaking of those Saints, they look to have a serious shot at an undefeated regular season after easily taking care of the Patriots. Drew Brees = the NFL's MVP in 2009...maybe a split with Peyton Manning at the worst-case.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS 33, Oakland Raiders 10
-This one could get ugly...very, very ugly. The Steelers are out for vengeance after losing their last two.

CAROLINA PANTHERS 24, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14
-Carolina actually benefits from QB Jake Delhomme's broken finger...now they have a non-performance-related excuse for not playing him. With the way Delhomme has played this season, things can only get better for Carolina.

Houston Texans 31, JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 28
-I see this one being a shootout like their matchup earlier this season. Look for Houston to exact some revenge for losing a close one on their home turf in Week 3.

San Diego Chargers 27, CLEVELAND BROWNS 7
-How does 1st year Browns coach Eric Mangini keep his job after this season? He's done an absolutely horrible job since taking over.

Dallas Cowboys 28, NEW YORK GIANTS 24
-This will be a very good game that will come down to the wire once again...but the Giants' free fall continues with another late-game loss to a good Dallas team.

San Francisco 49ers 23, SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 20
-The 49ers simply need this game more than the Seahawks, who are essentially eliminated from postseason contention. Look for another good performance from 49ers QB Alex Smith in the transformed San Francisco offense.

Minnesota Vikings 31, ARIZONA CARDINALS 24
-Will Kurt Warner play? I'm a lot more skeptical at this point than I was the other day. If he doesn't play, AZ has little chance to beat the 10-1 Vikings. If he does play, look for it to be close, but Minnesota's offense is playing just too well right now.

GREEN BAY PACKERS 23, Baltimore Ravens 16
-A night game in December in Green Bay? It should be in the 20s at gametime with possibly snow flurries. That favors the Packers who should win this before a tough stretch to end the season.

BONUS COLLEGE PICK - OREGON DUCKS 34, Oregon St. Beavers 24
-Oregon's offense won't be stopped with the Rose Bowl on the line in "The Civil War." Oregon QB Jeremiah Masoli uses this as a statement game in order to spearhead his run at the Heisman Trophy next season. This game should be a must watch for any college football fan on a Thursday night.