Why the Colts will dominate Super Bowl XLIV--The Breakdown

I'm not going to pull any punches here folks...Indianapolis is going to win this game...there is no doubt in my mind...and like I said last week, I don't see this one being close.

Look at it this way...of the 43 Super Bowls to date, only 14 have been decided by a touchdown or less. Only twice in history has the game been decided by a touchdown or less in consecutive years...it has never happened three years in a row. The last two Super Bowls were decided by 3 and 4 points respectively...meaning we're due for a blowout.

The Saints are a nice story...their city was devastated by Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the team and city had to rebuild basically from the ground up. Sean Payton has done a wonderful job as coach with Drew Brees being a God-send at quarterback. The team started 13-0 this season before losing its final three games. In the playoffs, they dismantled the Cardinals before squeaking by the Vikings with plenty of luck involved. Their only chance to win in my opinion is to put immense pressure on Peyton Manning like they did Kurt Warner and Brett Favre in these playoffs. But Manning has a quicker release than those QBs and dismantled far superior defenses in the Ravens and Jets these playoffs.

Throwing out the last two games of the 2009 regular season in which they played their backups nearly 3/4 of the time, Indianapolis is 25-1 in their last 26 meaningful games (23 regular season, 3 in the playoffs)...the only loss being in San Diego during the 2008-09 NFL playoffs. Manning is familiar with the spotlight having led his team to a win on the same field three years ago in a 29-17 victory over the Chicago Bears in Super Bowl XLI.

So with all that said, I'll take the Colts by a double-digit margin.

Now looking at the game from a Vegas perspective...the betting line and over-under. Indianapolis is now favored by between 4.5-5.5 points currently. The favorite has covered in 24 of the 43 games with 2 ties...at a rate of 59%. The over/under currently sits at around 56 for the Colts-Saints game, no doubt the highest total in Super Bowl history. Betters usually like the over, yet for some reason it has only hit in 20 of the 43 big games. Still, I'm tempting fate with my prediction:

COLTS 38, SAINTS 24
(Indy and over)

So who will the most valuable player be? Historically, quarterbacks have won the award in 22 of the 43 contests. No wonder Peyton Manning and Drew Brees have the lowest Vegas odds to win the award. Don't be surprised however, if a defensive player steals the ultimate individual game reward. Last year the Steelers' James Harrison was on his way to winning the MVP before the Cardinals' stunning comeback led to a wild 4th quarter (Steelers WR Santonio Holmes won it after making the dramatic deciding catch with under a minute to go).
This year I'll throw out two possibilities:
-Peyton Manning (1-2 odds) - obvious choice who also won the award three years ago.
-Dwight Freeney (50-1 odds) - the sentimental favorite who likely will play with a severe ankle sprain...if he makes at least two significant defensive plays from his defensive end spot and Indy wins, Freeney will get the award.

So there you have it folks, Indy wins convincingly, Manning or Freeney is the MVP...and all of Indianapolis is happy yet again.

FINAL NON-SUPER BOWL THOUGHT - The recently retired Kurt Warner is a shoe-in Hall-of-Famer in my opinion. He's a two time regular season MVP, a Super Bowl MVP, and holds the three highest passing yardage performances in sports' biggest game. Warner was clutch on the biggest stage, taking two of the NFLs most consistent underachieving franchises (Rams and Cardinals) to Super Bowls a combined three times (with a 1-2 record). If he's not a first or second ballot Hall-of-Famer based on those criteria (I understand he also had a rough period during the middle of his career mostly with the Giants), then the voting process to determine pro football immortality is severely flawed.